Kwiatkowski

Polish national champion Michał Kwiatkowski (left) at the Tour de Pologne (photo by Flickr user Piotr Drabik, used under a creative commons license)

For Milano-Sanremo and the cobbled classics the future was represented by Peter Sagan. In fact, Sagan has been the future for awhile now, and considering how long he has been in the front row of contenders, it is somewhat incredible that he is only 24. He started winning stages in the Tour of California in 2010, and already has two green jerseys at La Grande Boucle. As we move away from the cobbles, however, we will no longer have impatient commentators wondering when Sagan will win a sufficiently important one-day race to live up to his potential (given the talk comparing him to Eddy Merckx it will be difficult to satisfy everyone no matter what he does), instead, as we head for the punchy hills of the Netherlands and Belgium, the future will be represented by Polish National Champion Michał Kwiatkowski, himself only 23.

Although he is only six months younger than Sagan, as more of an all-rounder, Kwiatkowski does not have the mile-long list of palmarès like Sagan does. Nonetheless his rise is only slow compared to Sagan having finished 11th in the Tour de France last year, and more relevantly finishing fourth and fifth at Amstel and Flèche Wallonne last year. This year he got a big victory by out-kicking Sagan at Strade Bianchi, and, most recently, he finished second to a resurgent Alberto Contador at La Vuelta al País Vasco. So, it is not surprising that he will be getting the nod as the team leader heading into the Ardennes.

Having just had their classics season saved by Niki Terpstra, Kwiatkowski will be leading a strong Omega-Pharma team into the Ardennes with the big engine of Tony Martin to roll through the flats, Zdenek Stybar coming off his tour through the cobbles, and Jan Bakelants coming off a win of Stage 2 in last year’s Tour, followed by a couple days in yellow (incidentally, that day, riding for Radio Shack then, he was the last survivor of the break, holding off the peloton, led in by Peter Sagan and Michał  Kwiatkowski, by one second). We will see whether Omega-Pharma will continue being the strongest team, as they were on the cobbles, and whether it will pay off for them. Although, if I were going to start handicapping teams, it would be hard to argue with Astana, led by Vincenzo Nibali, followed by 2012 Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner Maxim Iglinsky, 2012 Amstel Gold winner Enrico Gasparotto, and Jakob Fuglsang (fourth at Amstel in 2011).

As with the cobbles, we will see whether there will be a changing of the guard, whether one of the wily veterans adds to an already long list of victories, or whether the winner is someone completely unexpected. If the racing is anywhere near as good as it was at Roubaix and Flanders it will at least be a good show, and although Roman Kreuziger snuck away early last year and the finish is now past the summit, the Cauberg will likely have the final say.

From the Cobbles to the Ardennes

Phil Gil on the Cauberg, off to get his stripes (photo by Flickr user Michiel Jelijs used under a creative commons license)

So far, Cancellara has been on the podium of all three Monuments this year. Not that it is too surprising, since he has been on the podium of the last 12 that he has finished, dating back to 2010. However, as we move from the cobbles to the hilly classics of the Ardennes, we also move from the rouleurs to the puncheurs and Spartacus’s will no longer be the wheel to which everyone is glued. In fact, while the recent story of the cobbles could largely be told through two men, the Ardennes are another matter entirely, and have a different winner for just about every edition.

In the time that Cancellara and Boonen have been dominating the Ronde and Roubaix, only three riders have managed to win Amstel Gold or Liège-Bastogne-Liège more than once. At Amstel Philippe Gilbert won in 2010 and 2011, while at Liège Alexandre Vinokourov won in 2005 and 2010, although there are suggestions that the second was purchased from Alexandr Kolobnev for €100,000, and Alejandro Valverde won in 2006 and 2008. For its part, at Flèche Wallonne, Davide Rebellin managed three victories in the last decade. Along with Gilbert, Valverde, Kolobnev, and Rebellin will all be around this year to see whether they can add to their haul. Although as he is now 42 I wouldn’t rush out to put your life savings on Rebellin to come home with a parcel of victories from the Ardennes.

So, as we move to Amstel on Sunday there are are no overwhelming favorites for the coming week, just a lot of riders with a decent shot. Now that Omega-Pharma, Cancellara, and Sagan have had their shot, many other teams will be looking to get their first big win of the year. Although there are no clear favorites, the most recent person to sweep the three races, Philippe Gilbert, did just win at Brabantse Pijl, which he last did during his incomparable 2011 season. After a slew of near misses, it should be exciting to  see whether Brabantse Pijl is an indication that he is back on top and is the man to fear in the Ardennes. It is not as though he has been hanging around the back of the pack during all this time, having been in the top ten or twenty at the hillier classics, including a third at La Flèche Wallonne in 2012, it is just that he has not had the form to see much of the top step recently, and that he has not come anywhere close to the form he had in 2011 when he won just about everything in sight, but with the win this week at Brabantse Pijl maybe things will start to look up for him. Even without that victory his palmarès mean that he is never going to be flying under the radar as the peloton leaves the cobbles, but if he does well at Amstel there will be a lot of attention on him for the remaining legs through the Ardennes.

In addition to the one-day specialists like Gilbert, the hilly classics also bring out the grand tour riders with Cadel Evans, Joaquim Rodríguez, and Fränk and Andy Schleck all getting victories in recent years. In fact, this will be the first serious riding we’ve seen of the Schleck brothers in a while, with Fränk out last year for doping issues and Andy having a down year, like Gilbert they also will be trying to find some regained form. So, although neither Contador nor Froome will be lining up in Maastricht there will be some indications of the form of some other grand tour hopefuls.

L’enfer du nord

Niki Terpstra at the 2013 Tour de France (photo by Flickr user denismenchov08)

It has been a cobble season of near misses for Omega-Pharma, but at the Roubaix velodrome having the strongest team finally paid off. It was, however, the lieutenant Niki Terpstra who won the day, not the general, although Tom Boonen wouldn’t be entirely absent. Although the big guns Boonen, Cancellara, and Sagan all had their say, and John Degenkolb inserted himself into the conversation, in the end Omega-Pharma’s strength was too much for the others and Terpstra snuck away for the victory in the final kilometers.

Like at Ronde van Vlaanderen, Omega-Pharma got a rider up the road, forcing Cancellara and Sagan to chase, but in this case it was Boonen up the road forcing the action, not one of his teammates, and it was the turn of Terpstra and Zdenek Stybar to stay in the group and let other teams work (sitting on itself not an easy task, it must be said, on the road to Roubaix). Unfortunately for Boonen, he did not have the form this year and he was reeled back in, but this time, having multiple cards to play worked out and Terpstra had enough in the tank to ride to victory.

A likely aid to Terpstra’s well-timed move was the presence of John Degenkolb in the lead group at the end. Having won Gent-Wevelgem this year he had shown that he could handle cobbles, but he had an impressive ride Sunday to show, along with a 15th at the Ronde, that he can handle the worst of the cobbles and that he will be a factor in the future for the cobbled classics. For the present, however, his presence likely discouraged Cancellara, Sagan, and the others from bringing back Terpstra, fearing that they would be towing him to victory, a fear that was quite justified by the result, and it helped Terpstra stay away. When the group game in 20 seconds behind, Degenkold took the sprint for second ahead of Cancellara.

For his part, Cancellara did not have the legs or the team to double up for the third time on his victory at Vlaanderen the week before, and he was largely a follower of moves, but while nothing less than the top step may be satisfying for him, he again finished on the podium, the 12th time in a row now for him at monuments (at least at ones he has finished, he crashed out of a Ronde van Vlaanderen in that streak), a staggering feat of dominant consistency.

To round out the rest of the Degenkolb group, we can note that Sep Vanmarcke had another strong ride at a cobbled classic, again finishing just behind Cancellara and, this time, just off the podium. In addition, erstwhile maillot jaune Bradley Wiggins found himself animating the lead group near the end of the race, and finished a very creditable 9th, just ahead of Tom Boonen. Now that the grand tour hopes of Sky have moved on to Chris Froome, he may have found himself a good niche away from the grande boucle. He seems to have enjoyed his time on the cobbles and to be looking forward to more.

Finally, Peter Sagan looks to be leaving the classics season without a breakthrough victory that everyone is expecting. His precocious talent means that anything less than continuous victory is seen as failure, and this season, so far, has been a disappointment. However, he did respectably and as he gains experience his results in the monuments will surely improve. The day, however, was not for the giants Boonen and Cancellara, nor for the up-and-comers Degenkolb and Sagan, but rather for Niki Terpstra, who has, himself had quite the tour through Flanders this year with a 6th at the Tour of Flanders, a 2nd at E3 Harelbeke, and another victory at Dwars door Vlaanderen.

Cancellara, Boonen, and the Hell of the North

Tom Boonen began riding Paris Roubaix in 2002, finishing an auspicious third. Fabian Cancellara started in 2004 with an auspicious 4th, finishing with the leading group of four in the velodrome. Since 2004, when Boonen was ninth, 2007 has been the only year without at least one of them on the podium and 2011 was the only other year that one of them did not win. Johan van Summeren held off the chase of Cancellara, who finished second that year. Twice they’ve finished one-two, with a victory apiece, although Cancellara was in on the sprint when he finished second, and Boonen was leading in the chase behind a solo Cancellara in this turn. That is to say, they have been pretty successful in recent years at L’enfer du nord. They’ve won seven of the last nine, with Boonen one ahead in victories.

Paris – Roubaix

Year	Boonen	Cancellara
2002	3	—
2003	24	—
2004	9	4
2005	1	8
2006	2	1
2007	6	19
2008	1	2
2009	1	49
2010	5	1
2011	DNF	2
2012	1	DNS
2013	DNS	1

Having seen the chart, let’s take a closer look at the Boonen-Cancellara era in La reine des classiques:

• 2002: Johan Museeuw won his third Paris-Roubaix, the most recent mud-soaked edition. Soloing for 41k, Museuw cruised to victory, three minutes ahead Steffen Wesemann in second and Boonen, riding for US Postal, in third. The next group, including Boonen’s teammate George Hincapie, was another minute down.
• 2003: Peter Van Petegem doubles up after having won the Tour of Flanders the week before, winning the sprint ahead of Dario Pieri and Viatcheslav Eximov. It was the first double since Roger De Vlaeminck, although our two heroes were about to make it a regular occurrence.
• 2004: Ah, now we have them both. Magnus Bäckstedt won a four-up sprint ahead of Tristan Hoffman, Roger Hammond, and Fabian Cancellara, making his debut. The previous two winners Museeuw and Van Petegem came in 17 seconds down, with Boonen finishing in the next group with his, now former, teammate George Hincapie.
• 2005: Tom Boonen out sprints George Hincapie and Juan Antonio Flecha to take his first victory, and doubles up after having won Flanders with a solo effort the week before. Cancellara finishes with the first large group, nearly 4 minutes behind.
• 2006: Attacking with 19k to go, Cancellara won by more than a minute. Boonen ended up finishing fifth, but getting second after the three riders between him and Cancellara, Leif Hoste, Vladimir Gusev, and Peter Van Petegem, were disqualified for crossing a closed railway crossing (you never know what kind of craziness you will end up with). Boonen was coming off winning Flanders the week before.
• 2007: The one with neither of them on the podium. Cancellara’s teammate Stuart O’Grady won after getting into a big early break. Making his bid alone from 20k out, he won by nearly a minute ahead of everyone. Boonen finished in sixth, several seconds off the podium. Cancellara was 19th, more than 2 and a half minutes in arrears.
• 2008: The clash. Boonen, Cancellara, and Alessandro Ballan, get away with 35k to go. Boonen wins the sprint in the velodrome for his second victory.
• 2009: Boonen again, finishing alone this time, nearly a minute ahead of Pipo Pozzato. Thor Hushovd was third. Boonen puts the hammer down in the Mons-en-Pévèle section with nearly 50k to go, whittling a leading group of 11 down to 6. Then a pair of crashes take out or delay the rest of breakaway and Boonen powered to victory. Cancellara finishes well down at 49th.
• 2010: Cancellara’s first double. Cancellara took off by himself with 40 k to go and won by two minutes ahead of Thor Hushovd and Juan Antonio Flecha. Boonen finished in fifth, 3:14 down. Behind Cancellara, Boonen was in the chase group, but the group had trouble working together, presumably because other riders did not feel very strongly about towing Boonen up to Cancellara and were understandably indifferent between losing to one or the other. Boonen was not happy about their lack of effort.
• 2011: Johan Vansummeren sneaks in and grabs one. Vansummeren attacked the lead group with 15 k to go and it was Cancellara’s turn to complain about the other members of his group failing to help him reel in the breakaway, presumably they were not any more interested in helping him win than the guys the year before had been in helping Boonen. He eventually got away with Maarten Tjallingii and Grégory Rast, although he could not close the gap to Vansummeren and finished second on the day ahead in a sprint ahead of Tjallingii. Boonen for his part punctured and crashed twice, ending the day with a DNF.
• 2012: Boonen’s second double. Cancellara didn’t start after crashing out of Flanders and Boonen won by more than a minute and a half, soloing for the last 50k. Sébastien Turgot and Alessandro Ballan rounded out the podium.
• 2013: Cancellara’s second double. Tom Boonen missing this time after a crash at Flanders, but Cancellara would not solo to victory this time. He wonn the sprint from Sep Vanmarcke in the velodrome after the pair worked together for the last 10 k to finish 30 seconds ahead of their pursuers, lead in by Niki Terpstra.

Well, there you have it, a recent history dominated by two men. This year Cancellara is coming off another win at Flanders while Boonen had to settle for a disappointing seventh. We shall see whether Boonen recovers, Cancellara takes an unprecedented third double, or whether Sep Vanmarcke, who has now been out-sprinted by Cancellara twice, or someone else sneaks in and takes down the titans.

Scheldeprijs

Wednesday provided a little mid-week amuse-bouche for the guys racing at Flanders and Roubaix. An opportunity for Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara to get out and stretch the legs. For the sprinters, however, it was more serious business, and with the last two victories at Scheldeprijs under his belt, all eyes were on Marcel Kittel, and he did not disappoint, winning by a couple bike lengths over Tyler Farrar in second and Danny Van Poppel in third.

Omega-Pharma looked strong again, but with Cavendish out, it wasn’t clear they had anyone who could challenge Kittel. They had former winner Alessandro Petacchi clipping in for them, but his victory was five years ago and at 40 his best years are behind him, with all due respect to Chris Horner. Nonetheless, riding on their home turf the Omega-Pharma boys went hard with none other than Tom Boonen moving to the front with 10k to take a big pull across the cobbles to help bring back the break.

As the break was getting shutdown by the teams with sprinters, a couple of the escapees, first Luke Rowe of Sky and then Andrea Fedi of Neri Sottoli took flyers off the front, but those were only desperate gasps as the peloton was quickly bearing down. Working for Petacchi, Omega-Pharma again went to the front but Marcel Kittel came around and easily took the line from a hard-chargin group where Garmin’s Tyler Farrar edged out Trek’s Danny van Poppel for second. Petacchi held on for fourth.

Now after Flanders and Scheldeprijs, Omega-Pharma have looked strong and done a lot of work but only have two fourth places to show for it, while Trek has a first and a third. Nonetheless the strength of the team is certainly good news if Stybar or Boonen or Terpstra has good legs for Roubaix and can challenge Spartacus.

Cancellara again

 

Fabian Cancellara at the 2011 World Championships (Photo by Flickr user Kristian Thøgersen)

For awhile there it looked like Omega-Pharma had everything under control and was going to win one way or another. With 20 or 30 kilometers to go Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara were alone, Boonen had three teammates with him and Stijn Vandenberg up the road with Greg van Avermaet. It looked like all they had to do was sit and wait, and that is what they were doing. Vandenberg was just sitting on Van Avermaet’s wheel because he had Tom Boonen, Niki Terpstra, and Zdenek Stybar behind, while the Omegas behind were sitting on since they had Vandenberg up the road. Without any teammates it looked like Cancellara and Sagan were going to have to cover every attack themselves. Meanwhile, realizing the nature of the standoff, the group thinned further as riders snuck off the front to try and join Van Avermaet and Vandenberg.

As things were looking dicey for the non-Omega Pharmas amongst the favorites, a chase group caught up and Sagan momentarily got some teammates back to bury themselves into the penultimate climb, the Oude Kwaremont. Although, it was Sagan’s workers who showed up, it was Cancellara, who had lost his teammates to crashes early in the race, who would benefit. Cancellara took off on the Kwaremont and it would prove to be a move that only Sep Vanmarcke could follow. They methodically worked together up and over the Paterberg, the final climb, closing the gap until they caught Vandenberg, and then Van Avermaet with 10k to go. Vandenberg took a couple turns, but mostly continued his policy of sitting on, although now it would prove to be more out of weakness than out of strength. Despite a valiant effort by Milano-Sanremo winner Alexander Kristoff to bridge the gap, it remained a four man race with the leaders playing cat and mouse for the last several kilometers. After various attacks, they were all together inside the red kite and when Cancellara jumped, Van Avermaet would have the most, but it was not enough and Cancellara took his third Ronde van Vlaanderen, while Vanmarcke took third and a hurting Vandenberg finished off the podium, meaning that a dominant Omega team ended up with nothing to show for the day.

Despite Omega Pharma having the strongest team with three riders inside the top ten, the day went to the strongest riders, who were undoubtedly Fabian Cancellara and Greg Van Avermaet. While Cancellara won, Van Avermaet towed a uncooperative and hurting Vandenbergh for 20 kilometers, then worked with Vanmarcke and Cancellara to maintain the lead, and finally was the only one of the three, who could go with Cancellara at the end, a strong ride. It is hard to know whether he should have waited longer to make his move, but he certainly looked strong and will be a danger come Paris-Roubaix on Sunday.

The big losers on the day were undoubtedly Omega-Pharma and Tom Boonen, who despite having good legs and good tactics were not good enough for the three men on the podium who are looking dangerous for our next leg of the cobbled classics. Peter Sagan also seems to be having a subdued season so far, and it will be interesting to see how he rebounds on Sunday. Although the attention was somewhat fractured before Flanders, one has to assume that the spotlight will be on Cancellara at Paris-Roubaix, although Vanmarcke and Van Avermaet also looked quite strong. Cancellara will also have the benefit of being a little more patient than the other favorites having already gotten a monument for the year, while Sagan and Boonen will need to try and salvage something after their disappointing showings.

Farrago

Zdenek Stybar at Cyclo-cross Gavere in 2010 (photo by Flickr user Peter Huys)

While he doesn’t get to wear his World Champion Stripes on the road, having won them in the mud, Zdenek Stybar will be at the cobbled classics, presumably riding for his leader Tom Boonen, although we can all hope that the crosser gets a chance to fly his lack of stripes at some point. Also, presumably he won’t be riding to and from the races (Paris at least is a long way away), like he did at Hoogerheide, beating the great Sven Nys in between commutes, but we shall see. While he may not be among the favorites, since he will be doing domestique duties, he did already casually win a world championship this year, and he may have some freedom to attack to take the pressure off of Boonen, depending on how Omega Pharma decides to roll it with him, Guillaume van Keirsbulck, Niki Terpstra, and Stjn Vandenbergh.

Having dispensed with the part-time crosser, we might as well move on to two of the men that have taken down Cancellara and Sagan already this year. First Alexander Kristoff, who won Milan-Sanremo ahead of an unhappy Fabian Cancellara. Kristoff was 4th at Flanders last year, and ninth at Paris-Roubaix, so after his victory at Sanremo it is unlikely that anyone will be overlooking him as we head to the cobbles. The vanquisher of Peter Sagan was John Degenkolb at Gent-Wevelgem. While Flanders and Roubaix may be less suited to his talents, he will clearly be dangerous if we can stay with any size group at the front, and Sagan, at least, will have him in mind if he’s near the front.

Moving from those who have had success this year to some who have had success at the cobbled classics in the past. We can start with Belkin, who have their own former cyclo-cross World Champion in Lars Boom, who was 6th at Paris-Roubaix, and his teammate Sep Vanmarcke, who was second at Roubaix to Cancellara last year and, so far this year , has been 5th at E3-Harelbeke, 4th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Gent-Wevegem, and 3rd at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. With Boom to run interference, Belkin has a formidable one-two punch lined up for the cobbles, and we’ll see whether they can break through for a big one.

Like Belkin, BMC is coming with a solid lineup behind their own Belgian hope, Greg van Avermaet. This year Avermaet was 2nd at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and 10th at E3-Harelbeke. Last year although he only had a couple wins he was in the top ten at Roubaix and Flanders and a bunch of the (semi-)classics including Strade Bianche and Brabantse Pijl. He will be supported by Taylor Phinney, as we have mentioned, and will have the God of Thunder riding along side, who may be getting a little long in the tooth, but was 2nd at Roubaix in 2010 and 3rd the year before.

Now a final paragraph in which we throw out a couple names, hoping that come Monday, we will have mentioned the winner somewhere in these previews. Having touched on Thor Hushovd, we would be remiss in not mentioning his fellow Norseman, Edvald Boasson-Hagen, who was 3rd at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad this year and is looking for a big one-day win as Sky tries to take the Classics more seriously, with Boasson Hagen, Geraint Thomas (behind Sagan at E3-Harelbeke), and erstwhile maillot jaune, Bradley Wiggins rounding things out. Like Sky, Garmin has not been the strongest of teams in the Classics, but has managed to sneak away with some big victories, including Johan van Summeren’s at Paris-Roubaix in 2011. He will be leading their attack again this year.

With Sagan, Cancellara, and Boonen all taking the next two weeks seriously, it is almost hard to believe that anyone else can sneak in for the victory, but as we’ve seen there are plenty of contenders and they are some long, bumpy days in the saddle. Should be some good racing.

The Youngsters

Peter Sagan at the Tour of Poland (photo by Flickr user Piotr Drabik)

Now perhaps Mr. Sagan deserves his own post, but the oldsters Cancellara and Boonen had to share, so Sagan will as well, although he is the most fearsome and most decorated of the young riders. In addition, Sagan finished second to Spartacus last year, so he may be getting a larger chunk of this pos, however, after Sagan we will touch on Taylor Phinney and Guillaume van Keirsbulck.

Unlike many of the favorites for the Ronde and Roubaix, Sagan spent the week racing at the Driedaagse De Panne and as usual has been all over the front of that and pretty much everything else he has gotten near. Aside from a somewhat disappointing 10th in the unpleasant weather of Milan – Sanremo, Sagan has had a good early season. He got his first big one-day victory with E3-Harelbeke and was on the podium at Strade Bianche, where he was beaten by another youngster Michał Kwiatkowski (who will not be part of the very deep Omega-Pharma squad at the Ronde), and Gent-Wevelgem, where he lost out on the sprint to John Degenkolb.

While he has been good, he has not felt unstoppable. However, if he gets a win at Flanders or Paris-Roubaix it is going to again look like there is nothing anyone can do to keep him from rampaging through the cycling calendar, winning whatever he sets his mind too. Sometimes sports fans find such dominance tiresome, but from the rapid decline of Tiger Woods to the recent struggles of Philip Gilbert after his run of invincibility, it is probably best to keep in mind that it will not last forever and to simply appreciate the greatness. It is astonishing how young Sagan still is and how the sky seems to be the limit.

Van Keirsbulck, apparently being touted as the next Tom Boonen, joined Sagan at Driedaagse De Panne, and while Sagan picked up a stage, Van Keirsbulck took the overall. However, because of being a member of the very deep Omega-Pharma team, he was still on the bubble in terms of participating at Flanders after the race, although he now appears to have a start at least at Flanders, we will see about Roubaix. Finally, let us touch on Taylor Phinney, a two-time winner of Paris-Roubaix Espoirs (admittedly not the most distinguished company), and finishing 15th in his debut with the big boys in 2012 before slipping to 23th last year. This will be his first time and Flanders and he will be riding for Greg van Avermaet, who was 7th at Flanders and 4th at Roubaix last year.

While Sagan is the only one of this group who will be riding for himself, the pavé can be unpredictable and it is always exciting to get a glimpse of the future, even if its just a matter of hanging around the lead pack or taking a doomed flyer off the front.

Boonen and Cancellara

The next two Sundays bring us the cobbled classics of Ronde van Vlaanderen and Paris-Roubaix. Any discussion of the favorites has to start with two riders: Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara. So we being there, the whippersnappers and the long shots will have to wait their turn. The two cobbled classics cavaliers may be nearing the end of their dominance, and injuries may have deprived us of great clashes in some recent years, but with 12 of the  victories in the last 10 years and with each of them having swept the pair of races twice, everyone else will be marking Boonen and Cancellara come Sunday.

This year, neither is coming into the cobbled classics on a tear of dominance as they are sometimes wont to do, but both have had solid early seasons, and Boonen’s fourth at Gent-Wevelgem seems to show that his injured thumb, from a crash during H3-Harelbeke won’t hamper him too much.

Given that Cancellara had his second sweep of the two races last year, let us begin with him, and perhaps the best place to begin the review of his early season is at the other Monument, La Primavera. Cancellara made the podium for the fourth consecutive time at Milan-Sanremo to add to his win in 2008. Although the expression on his face pretty well sums up his feelings about not being on the top step, being well-beaten by Alexander Kristoff. Aside from that he has had a respectable season with a sixth at Strade Bianchi and what was seen as an impressive 9th at H3-Harelbeke, riding back into contention after getting stuck behind a crash. So, while not a dominant spring, he has shown good form and should be a motivating factor in the race on Sunday.

Last year, while Cancellara was sweeping the Ronde and Roubaix, Boonen was suffering through an unpleasant spring campaign. After crashing out of Gent-Wevelgem, he crashed out of the Tour of Flanders as well and after finding that it was a broken rib missed Roubaix, thus providing a mirror image of the year before when Cancellara crashed out of Tour of Flanders, missed Roubaix, and Boonen went through to win them both for the second time in his career.

So far this season has not been much more auspicious for Boonen. After early season success at the Tour of Qatar where he won a pair of stages and the points jersey, and a victory and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, his partner Lore had a miscarriage giving him more important things on his mind than bike racing, leading to a break from racing including missing out on the cold and wet of Milan-Sanremo. However, with the Northern Classics on, he was back on the bike, but added to his misfortune with a crash at E3-Harelbeke which led to a strained thumb. Nonetheless, things seem to be looking up with his 5th place finish at Gent-Wevelgem where he had his share of frustration after getting boxed in after a crash near the end and not having a good shot at contesting the sprint. In any case it appears the thumb will not be a major factor come Sunday (easy to say far from the bumpy roads of Belgium).

Thus, while neither is on roaring form, winning everything in sight, they both seem to be on good form, and will be looking to keep off the up-and-comers and dark horses. For both of them these two weeks are the most important on the calendar and as long as they both keep the rubber side down we should be in for a good showdown between the two classics masters.

Geraint and Sagan at H3

The other day, watching the end of H3-Harelbeke, I was struck by the fact that Geraint Thomas continued to evenly split chasing duties with Peter Sagan all the way to the bitter end. Stuck in a break with Sagan and the pair of Omega Pharmacists Niki Terpstra and Stign Vandenbergh, Thomas and Sagan alternated chasing down the attacks by the two teammates. Now, relatively speaking, couch-bicycle riding might be even easier than armchair-quarterbacking, and I only saw the last 15 or 20 kilometers, but I was surprised that Thomas didn’t take the position that he was just along for the ride, no matter how much gesticulating and cajoling Sagan did. In a normal break with four people, two of which are teammates, the other two would be at a grave disadvantage and would need to work together, but when Peter Sagan is there, normal considerations seem to go out the window.

From the couch, at least, Thomas clearly had the short end of the stick and therefore the least responsibility to win out of that break. The Omega Pharma pair needed to win because they had two guys in the break and in a four man break that should be dispositive, but Peter Sagan needed to win because he’s Peter Sagan and so expected to win. Furthermore, he needed the win after having just come up short at Milan-Sanremo and despite all his palmarès he’s still in search of a defining one-day victory . So if I were Thomas I think my position would have been that Sagan needed this a lot more than I did, that I saw no shame in losing to one of the Pharmacists and if he wanted to be on the top step he better be chasing down, if not all, at least the lion’s share of the attacks by the Pharma pair. On the track, Thomas may be the favorite, but out of a four man break on the road, to the casual observer, Sagan would seem to be the prohibitive one.

Now clearly Geraint Thomas did not do this, and seeing as he’s the professional I should probably defer to his judgement on this matter, so here are some thoughts about why he did, what he did. Perhaps if you are a professional cyclist of Geraint Thomas’s caliber and you are in a break with Peter Sagan you have to honestly believe that you can evenly share the work with him and still beat him at the end. Perhaps this idea was boosted by Sagan’s poor (for him) showing at La Primavera and Thomas thought that Sagan wasn’t on his best form. Perhaps it was some combination of the cycling code of putting in your work and not just sucking wheels overcoming the fear that you’re just going to tow your competitor to the line, along with the pragmatic idea that Sagan is a good friend to have in the peloton and that if Thomas puts in his fair share at Harelbeke, Sagan will return the favor down the line, with him or his team putting in some work later in the year when it is not strictly in their best interest for that day, i.e. cycling’s an iterated game, not just a single shot.

Or maybe I just missed something earlier in the race that was determinative, in any case, the big days of the spring are still to come and we will see who wins out over the long haul.